Vietnam’s Economic Outlook – Key Trends & Growth Drivers for 2025

At the close of 2024, Vietnam is estimated to have achieved a GDP growth rate exceeding 7%. With this growth rate, Vietnam ranks among the fastest-growing countries in the region and globally. Looking ahead to 2025, many international organizations express optimism about Vietnam’s economic growth prospects.

Global Economic Landscape in 2024

The global economy in 2024 maintained a moderate recovery at around 3.2% (similar to 2023, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in October 2024). However, this growth is uneven, with disparities between countries and between the service and manufacturing sectors. Overall, inflation has cooled, creating favorable conditions for central banks to implement monetary easing policies, lowering interest rates to support growth and stability in global financial markets. On the other hand, the global economy still faces numerous risks and challenges. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine remain complex; competition in trade and technology, protectionism, and trade fragmentation are increasing. Risks related to energy security, food security, cybersecurity, and extreme weather events persist. Although inflation and interest rates have decreased, they remain high, meaning financial and monetary risks are still present.

Vietnam Returns as an ASEAN Growth Star in 2024

After the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) unexpectedly rose to 6.9% in the second quarter and 7.4% in the third quarter, HSBC Bank revised its forecast and believes that Vietnam’s growth in 2024 will reach 7%. With this forecast from HSBC, Vietnam is likely to return as a “growth star” in 2024, after the Philippines led the region in 2023.

Accordingly, the General Statistics Office report stated that GDP in the fourth quarter of 2024 increased by 7.55%, in which: Sector I (Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries) increased by 2.99%, contributing 4.86% to the overall increase in added value of the economy; Sector II (Industry and Construction) increased by 8.35%, contributing 44.03%; Sector III (Services) increased by 8.21%, contributing 51.11%. For the entire year of 2024, GDP increased by 7.09%, in which: Sector I increased by 3.27%, contributing 5.37% to the overall increase in added value; Sector II increased by 8.24%, contributing 45.17%; Sector III increased by 7.38%, contributing 49.46%.

Figure 1: GDP and VA Growth Rates by Sector and Quarter in 2024 (%)

Exports, Imports, and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Flows Drove Vietnam’s Economy in 2024

Amidst complex global developments, Vietnam’s economy in 2024 continued its strong recovery, with GDP estimated to reach 6.8 – 7%, exceeding the National Assembly’s target. Notably, exports, imports, and foreign direct investment (FDI) have emerged as bright spots, reflecting the confidence of international investors in Vietnam’s investment environment.

Record-Breaking Import-Export Turnover Exceeding USD 786 Billion

2024 marked several important milestones for import and export activities. The total import-export turnover approached the USD 800 billion mark, reaching a record USD 786.29 billion, surpassing the record set in 2022. Exports exceeded the USD 400 billion mark for the first time in three years. This can be considered a significant milestone for Vietnam’s efforts to develop international trade. As a result, the WTO ranked Vietnam 17th among the 20 economies with the largest trade volumes in the world.

Figure 2: Import and Export of Goods in 2024. Source: General Statistics Office.

Also in 2024, for the first time, a single commodity achieved an import or export turnover of over USD 100 billion. This was electronics, computers, and components, with import turnover reaching USD 107.1 billion, a significant increase of 21.7% compared to 2023, accounting for 28.1% of total import turnover. This commodity also leads the list of major export items, reaching USD 72.6 billion, bringing the total import-export turnover of electronics, computers, and components to USD 179.7 billion, a sharp increase of 23.6% compared to 2023.

The strong growth of electronics, computers, and components indicates that Vietnam is gradually shifting from producing raw materials to higher value-added products, especially in the processing, manufacturing, and high-tech industries. The development of the electronic components, robotics, and software industries is clear evidence of this shift.

Vietnam Continues to be a Destination for Foreign Investors (FDI)

While global foreign direct investment (FDI) flows are declining due to uncertainties in the global economy, FDI into Vietnam has maintained its momentum. According to statistics from the Ministry of Planning and Investment, FDI attraction for the whole of 2024 reached nearly USD 38.23 billion, placing Vietnam among the top 15 developing countries attracting the most FDI; realized FDI reached approximately USD 25.35 billion, an increase of 9.4%, the highest ever. The national brand value in 2024 reached USD 507 billion, ranking 32nd in the world, up one place from 2023. This is the result of efforts to improve investment attraction policies and trade promotion activities.

In 2024, Vietnam saw many positive signals from foreign investment flowing into the technology sector, especially high-tech. In early December 2024, Nvidia chose Vietnam to build its third artificial intelligence (AI) research center in the world, after the US and Taiwan. In November 2024, Foxconn announced an USD 80 million investment in chip manufacturing in Bac Giang province. SpaceX, owned by Elon Musk, also plans to invest USD 1.5 billion in Vietnam, while the Trump Organization will invest a similar amount in Hung Yen. Amkor, a US-based technology corporation, announced plans to build a 200,000-square-meter factory in Vietnam with a total investment of up to USD 1.6 billion in June 2024.

With the promising growth prospects of the economy and recent moves by foreign investors, many experts predict that foreign investment flowing into Vietnam in 2024 could reach the set target of USD 40 billion.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang Chose Vietnam as the Company’s “Second Home” Through the Opening of The Research and Development Center.

Positive Growth Trend Forecast to Continue in 2025

For Vietnam, most international organizations such as the World Bank (WB), Asian Development Bank (ADB), OECD, and IMF forecast Vietnam’s growth in 2025 to be between 6.1% and 6.6%. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecast, Vietnam’s economy will reach a scale of USD 506 billion in 2025, ranking 33rd globally. This is an increase from the USD 433 billion GDP and 34th position in 2023.

Meanwhile, in the recently published “Global Economic Prospects” report, the World Bank forecasts Vietnam’s GDP growth to reach 6.6% in 2025. This is 0.1 percentage point higher than the organization’s previous forecast in October 2024. With this projected growth rate, Vietnam will be among the countries with the highest economic growth rates in Asia, behind only Bhutan and India, both of which are forecast to achieve 7.2% growth. Compared to other countries in the region, Vietnam’s GDP growth will surpass that of the Philippines (6.1%), Cambodia (5.5%), Indonesia (5.1%), and Thailand (2.9%).

According to economic experts, Vietnam’s economy has achieved very positive results due to increased demand from major export partners such as the EU and the US, leading to a strong recovery in exports and industrial production, along with a gradual recovery in domestic consumption. Also providing forecasts for Vietnam’s economy in 2025, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) raised its forecast for 2025 to 6.6%, from 6.2% in its December 2024 report. This adjustment is based on Vietnam’s strong export performance, including the manufacturing sector, solid foreign direct investment (FDI) performance, supported by the trend of global monetary adjustments, and moderate global commodity prices (including crude oil prices).

Factors Driving Vietnam’s Economic Growth in 2025

• The global economy is gradually stabilizing as global merchandise trade improves, inflationary pressures ease, financial market conditions continue to loosen, and the labor market recovers positively. These factors will create positive conditions for global economic growth in 2025, which will positively impact the economies of countries around the world, including Vietnam. In addition, the global economy is currently experiencing a transition between liberalization and protectionism, between multilateralism and bilateralism, especially in the context of unpredictable geopolitical developments. Innovation, increased application of science and technology, and environmental protection are becoming inevitable trends for global development. In this context, countries, including Vietnam, always focus on adjusting strategies and policies to participate deeply in global value chains, enhance their export position, effectively exploit trade advantages, and attract foreign investment flows for economic development. 

• The trend of global supply chain shifts is creating significant opportunities for Vietnam to attract foreign investment in the industrial sector, particularly in processing, manufacturing, and high-tech industries. Besides, the digital economy, digital transformation, and innovation are identified as new growth drivers, providing the foundation for increasing productivity and efficiency of the economy. Semiconductor industry development is a strategic goal, not only a driving force for the development of other industries such as e-commerce, manufacturing, and logistics, but also a foundational element for the development of the digital economy and digital society in Vietnam. Leveraging FTA agreements to expand export markets for Vietnam’s key and advantageous products to European, Japanese, North American, and Halal markets; participating deeply and enhancing its position in the world’s supply chain.

• Continuous improvements in policies and legal procedures create favorable conditions for investors. The Government’s policies have focused on implementing solutions for socio-economic development, promoting economic growth, maintaining macroeconomic stability, controlling inflation, and ensuring major balances. The Government and the Prime Minister have engaged in exchanges and dialogues with the domestic and foreign business communities to receive feedback and address issues and obstacles related to production and business activities, including the credit market and the real estate market. The government has issued important directives and messages on ensuring major balances and providing sufficient electricity for production and consumption in the country. Policy communication is carried out regularly, proactively, and effectively, thereby helping to strengthen the confidence of the business community and the people in the Government’s socio-economic development solutions.

The Semiconductor Industry Is Considered a Foundational Element for The Development of The Digital Economy and Digital Society in Vietnam.

Vietnam is a country with a highly integrated economy with the global economy; therefore, developments in the global economy will significantly affect Vietnam’s economy in 2025. Although the geopolitical situation in the world is unstable and many developments are unpredictable, Vietnam’s economic growth is assessed by international organizations to be more positive thanks to the recovery of trade growth and good inflation control. GDP growth in 2025 is forecast to be around 6.5 – 7%.

Foreign direct investment (FDI) flows into Vietnam will continue to increase strongly thanks to Vietnam’s strategic location, young workforce, and increasingly improved business environment. Trade activities, including exports and imports, will continue to improve, especially in the electronics, textile and garment, and agricultural sectors. The digital economy is predicted to expand with the increasing application of digital technologies and e-commerce in 2025.